Monday, February 20, 2017

Client Trading Notes Updated

Client Trading
Bulls make money, bears make money, and but PIGS get slaughtered" is an old Wall Street saying that warns traders against the danger of excessive greed.  Disciplined traders always remove their own capital (initial investments) as fast as possible and risk only other people's money while watching TIME and trend energy. TIME is defined by cycles unique to each market, while energy is defined by DI and CAP in the Matrix.



Client Trading Notes can be accessed with a special key.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Distriubtion In #Bonds Becoming Obvious

News
The poisonous political climate might blame Trump for the selling but the motivation is purely economic. Fear of future liquidity and lack of demand in a debt crisis likely to unfold in 2017 has smart money shortening their duration by selling long-term treasury bonds and replacing them with shorter term notes and bills for years. While the message of market points towards short-term consolidation in the credit market, it won't reverse the distribution that became obvious in late 2016.

Subscriber Comments



Headline: America’s Biggest Creditors Dump Treasuries in Warning to Trump

In the age of Trump, America’s biggestforeign creditors are suddenly having second thoughts about financing the U.S. government.

In Japan, the largest holder of Treasuries, investors culled their stakes in December by the most in almost four years, the Ministry of Finance’s most recent figures show. What’s striking is the selling has persisted at a time when going abroad has rarely been soattractive. And it’s not just the Japanese. Across the world, foreigners are pulling back from U.S. debt likenever before.


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Sunday, February 19, 2017

Public Believing in the BS of Teflon Market Will Be Big Buyers of Stocks Soon

News
The Teflon market continues to rally but few understand why. The majority incorrectly believes politics and/or Trump is driving the trend. This largely domestic perspective, however, ignores the reality of the global economy and capital flows. Money is flying out of Europe, but few give a damn as long as US stocks keep moving higher.

A rally based on flight of capital, while extremely profitable, won't last forever. Soon the public, the bagholders of trend transition and believers of headline BS, will enter the stock market. They're entry will likely push stocks to levels that exceed even the most seasoned investors' expectations. History warns us that trees don't grow to the sky. US stocks will be vulnerable when trend concentrations push well beyond normal cyclical extremes. The majority will still believe in the Teflon market when that happens. Followers of the Matrix won't.

One of the most bearish rallies of all time, lead by massive energy surges in the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Industrials (fact not opinion), continues to push US stocks to new all-time highs against the pessimism of the majority (chart 1 and 2). While this combination (new highs and shockingly high pessimism) is extremely bullish, it's being largely ignored by majority, a group badly scarred by the memories of the 2007-2009 market. This is a market driven by international capital flows and professional buying. The rest are too busy focusing on fear rather than the message of the market.

Chart 1: Nasdaq 100 REV(E)


Chart 2: Dow Industrials REV(E)


Headline: The 'Teflon market': Why stocks keep setting new highs despite Trump drama

After all the Michael Flynn scandals and overturned executive orders and middle-of-the-night disruptive tweets, Wall Street believes one thing above all — that the Trump administration will survive and the U.S. economy will thrive.

There's pretty much no other way to account for the way financial markets have managed to ignore the tumult in Washington and continue to reach new record highs.


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Friday, February 17, 2017

#Matrix Update $SPY $TLT $GLD $SLV $UUP $FXE

COT Matrix
The COT Matrix, an array that display the message of Price, Leverage (DI) & Sentiment (CAP), and Time, helps subscribers recognize buying and selling opportunities in agricultural commodities, bonds, energy, foreign exchange, commodities, precious metals, livestock, and domestic and international equity markets.

Investors/traders buy and sell focused bull and bear opportunities. Gain access to the message of the market to trade like a professional today.





I have been upgrading/improving the Matrix's content to view all markets simultaneously because volatility and the probability of stocks, and, possibly, precious metals entering phase transitions in 2017 are rising fast. Emotions, driven by misdirection and confusion, will be difficult to control. The Matrix, a non-biased interpretation of the message of the market, will be one of the few consistent sources of information for us.

Our instincts, a production of human evolution, will prevent us from buying and selling away from the majority that will soon enter the market.

The Matrix

Select Market



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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

01/16 #Seasonality #Stocks, #Gold, #Silver and #Bonds

Seasonality
Stocks, bonds, commodities follow seasonal tendencies or cycles that give rise to trading adages such as Sell in May and Go Away. A detailed correlation study US stock total return indices (capital appreciation plus dividend reinvestment) from 1925 to the presents suggests that the old stock adage should renamed to sell a little in March, more in June, then go away. While Sell in May and Go Away is easier to remember, it generally misses some extra profit potential up to the summer session.

Insights tracks and deciphers the flow of sentiment, price, leverage, and time - the message of the market to define the trend in terms of the cycle of accumulation and distribution for subscribers.

Please join us.





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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Strategy of Selling Fear Hopes To Save #Euro

News
Why not? The Euro is teetering on an economic, political, and social cliff largely because the EU, once sold as trade union to complete against the United States and Asia block, has become a tool for the federalization of Europe through bureaucracy of un-elected officials. Did not a majority of British vote to exit the EU as a protection of their sovereign rights and status? Tony Blair's selling of fear likely has not changed the will of the people. Apparently, the new strategy of propaganda, the selling of fear and chaos to reverse the will of the people, will save the Euro. Headlines will debate it, but the invisible hand is the only opinion that matters. It's certainly beginning to question the long-term viability of the Euro.

Headline: Tony Blair calls for people to 'rise up' against Brexit

Tony Blair has said it is his "mission" to persuade Britons to "rise up" and change their minds on Brexit.

Speaking in the City of London, the former prime minister claimed that people voted in the referendum "without knowledge of the true terms of Brexit".


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Trump Is Not Driving The US Stock Rally

News
Regardless of what the headline say, or majority thinks, this rally has nothing to do with Trump. Safe haven capital flows, largely from Europe, are pouring into the United States. Interest rates are rising, so the next logical destination is US stocks. Higher stock prices, a relentless trend that few can recognize, will slowly turn a bearish majority into raving bulls that see nothing but higher prices. That transition, almost certainly unrecognized by the majority of stock commentaries, will mark the beginning of the end of the Great 2009 rally. Few will make a fortune by selling near the top, likely around a crisis, while the majority will become the bagholders of yet another trend transition.

Headline: Donald Trump tweets that he's the reason the stock market is rallying

President Donald Trump has a message for stock investors: You're welcome.

Trump pointed to new "confidence and optimism" for the stock market's latest record run in a tweet Thursday. The Dow Jones industrial average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite all closed at all-time highs for five days straight, entering Thursday's session.


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.