Friday, May 26, 2017

05/19/17 #CrudeOil Chart $USO

Crude Oil
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Crude Oil's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments



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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Fed Minutes Increasing Prob of June Rate Hike


News
Yesterday's Fed minutes indicated that that most official believe the a healthy economic backdrop warrants higher interest rates. They used the word "soon", which the markets translated as an interest rate hike in June. This interpretation somewhat contradicts Economic Activity Composite's message of economic deterioration within an uptick.

The Fed clearly realizes that interest rates must go higher to ease the strain on America's public pensions.

Headline: The Fed says it'll be appropriate to raise interest rates again 'soon'

The Federal Reserve is set to continue raising interest rates, with most officials seeing further tightening as appropriate "soon," minutes of its May meeting published Wednesday showed.

As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left its benchmark interest rate unchanged in May, and markets anticipate that it would hike again at the June meeting. CME's FedWatch Tool reflects an 83.1% probability that the FOMC will increase the target rate to a range of 1% to 1.25%.


more

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Thursday, May 25, 2017

05/19/17 Reading the Tape $NFLX

Reading the Tape
Traders read the tape - ticker tape in the old days to determine the recent buying and selling pressure. Here lies the importance of volume. It's easy to spot a large buyer or seller when the volume is light. Big buyers usually enter before big moves.

Jesse Livermore read the tape and never fought it.

Of course there is always a reason for fluctuations, but the tape does not concern itself with the why or wherefore. It doesn’t go into explanations. I didn’t ask the tape why when I was fourteen, and I don’t ask it today at forty…, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.


While the tape, often triggered by price in reaction or anticipation of the new flow, is triggered by price, it's fueled by force. Volume is the domain of force. Traders/investors must learn to read the force behind the trend.

Subscriber Comments



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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Trading Notes Updated

Trading Notes
Bulls make money, bears make money, and but PIGS get slaughtered" is an old Wall Street saying that warns traders against the danger of excessive greed.  Disciplined traders always remove their own capital (initial investments) as fast as possible and risk only other people's money while watching TIME and trend energy. TIME is defined by cycles unique to each market, while energy is defined by DI and CAP in the Matrix.



Trading Notes can be accessed with a special key.

Sample Trading Notes 04/28/17

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

05/25/17 #Sentiment $SPX

Sentiment
The old American idiom of a day late and dollar short is an phrase easily applied to majority's ability to time (buy or sell) US stocks. The majority, influenced more by instinctual behavioral tendency of the individual to seek acceptance of an emotionally-driven crowd than act independently in the minority, views rising and falling stocks prices as bullish and bearish. This tendency that drives them chase when probabilities favor fading relegates the majority as the consistent bagholders of history's panics and trend changes.

Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”, John Templeton

The Sentiment model, an excellent standalone trading tool for US stocks include The Matrix, should be used by investors looking to outperform the buy-and-hold investment strategy. The model produces the following observations: (1) bull and bear phases have produced average annualized returns of 26% and 61% and 32% and -7% since 1992 and 2017; these returns significantly outperform buy-and-hold (B&H) average annualized returns of 8% and 7% over the same periods, and (2) stock returns are clearly not random as taught by popular academic theories.

Sentiment Model Output 2015 and 2016

Subscriber Comments



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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

05/19/17 #Silver Chart $SLV

Silver Chart
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Silver's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, defined and are discussed in the COT Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments



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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Tuesday, May 23, 2017

05/19/17 Reading the Tape $GOOG

Reading the Tape
Traders read the tape - ticker tape in the old days to determine the recent buying and selling pressure. Here lies the importance of volume. It's easy to spot a large buyer or seller when the volume is light. Big buyers usually enter before big moves.

Jesse Livermore read the tape and never fought it.

Of course there is always a reason for fluctuations, but the tape does not concern itself with the why or wherefore. It doesn’t go into explanations. I didn’t ask the tape why when I was fourteen, and I don’t ask it today at forty…, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.


While the tape, often triggered by price in reaction or anticipation of the new flow, is triggered by price, it's fueled by force. Volume is the domain of force. Traders/investors must learn to read the force behind the trend.

Subscriber Comments



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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.