Tuesday, January 17, 2017

01/13/17 #USDollarIndex Chart $UUP

US Dollar Chart
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

The US Dollar Index's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in the COT Matrix for subscribers.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

#China Rightfully Defends Globalization And Warns Against Trade Wars

News
Trade, positioned as the protection of jobs and simple fluctuations between currency, has long be an object to be managed by politicians. Hubert Hoover was crushed by trade and protectionist policies during the early stages of the Great Depression. The more the European economy imploded, the higher the dollar soared. A rising trend reduced the competitiveness of US goods and services and exploded the US's trade deficit with the world. Trump will face a similar crisis. A simple border tax not linked to currency fluctuations will only repeat the mistakes of the past and fuel the global economic downturn.



Headline: China’s Xi Warns Against Trade War in Defense of Globalization

Chinese President Xi Jinping cautioned against protectionism as he pushed back against criticism of globalization by Donald Trump and other Western populists.

“Protectionism is like locking yourself in a dark room, which would seem to escape wind and rain, but also block out the sunshine,” Xi told the World Economic Forum on Tuesday, the first Chinese head of state to address the annual gathering in the Alpine resort town of Davos. “No one is a winner in a trade war.”


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Client Trading Notes Updated

Client Trading
Bulls make money, bears make money, and but PIGS get slaughtered" is an old Wall Street saying that warns traders against the danger of excessive greed.  Disciplined traders always remove their own capital (initial investments) as fast as possible and risk only other people's money while watching TIME and trend energy. TIME is defined by cycles unique to each market, while energy is defined by DI and CAP in the Matrix.



Client Trading Notes are accessed with a special key.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

01/13/17 #US10YRBonds Chart $IEF

10-Year Chart
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

US 10-Year's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in the COT Matrix for subscribers.

While coordinated 'stimulus' supports a countertrend rally of commodities foreshadowed by negative concentration discussed months ago, it won't reverse defensive global capital flows regardless of the hype. Defensive flows likely includes US Treasury bonds until the wolf pack culls the herd of weak European and Asian debt. Only after they're thinned will the focus turn to the US. Gentleman could very well prefer government bonds, notes, and bills at least in the initial stages of the next panic.

What Mellow omitted is that investors prefer the public sector (bonds) when confidence in the private sector (stocks) is failing. Investors preferred bonds in 1929 because confidence in the private sector was failing. While gentlemen could prefer bonds in the initial stages of the next panic, they'll like turn on them as confidence in the public sector falters from an already shaken position. This will burn a majority populated by central bankers and followers of today's bullish headline hype rather quickly.


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Currency Traders Recognize That Europe Is Breaking Apart

News
Europe is primed for a breakup because EU leadership has good too far in restricting member rights. Leaders in Brussels see Europe as a single country to be managing rather than specialized regions, States, and/or countries with the own specific political, social, and economic cultures. The EU, once conceived/sold on economic principles, has become a political union that's sacrificing regional sovereignty and culture. History has tried these types of forced unions with disastrous results.

Others will leave the EU either by choice or force of the invisible hand. Neither will be easy for its citizens because the majority is always wrong about timing.

Headline: Donald Trump takes swipe at EU as ‘vehicle for Germany’

Donald Trump has taken his strongest swipe yet at the EU, labelling it “a vehicle for Germany” and predicting that other countries will follow Britain in leaving the bloc.

The president-elect also warned that his trust for Angela Merkel “may not last long at all”, ranking the German chancellor alongside Vladimir Putin as a potentially problematic ally.


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

01/13/16 #Nikkei Chart $NIKK

Nikkei Chart
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Nikkei's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in the Matrix for subscribers.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Monday, January 16, 2017

01/13/17 #Copper Chart $JJC #Free

Copper Chart
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Copper's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, defined and are discussed in the COT Matrix for subscribers.

A subscription key allows you to track the copper through the Matrix. The Matrix is an affordable, weekly publication that tracks price, leverage, and sentiment to define focus bull and bear opportunities of 33 major markets. See Understanding the Matrix or contact us for further details.

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Chart


Copper's focused bull opportunity has produced a 54% annualized return for the bulls since the second week of November (see JJC Matrix). The opp recorded an impressive 1305% return in the fourth week of November. Disciplined bulls that withdrew their initial investments in the fourth week of November are letting their profits run while watching TIME (BuST) and trend energy (DI).

Smart money, a small minority listening to the message of the market, recognized the decay of TIME as BuST rises above 0 and approaches 2. BuST = -0.4 defines a trend nearing its cycle mid point.  Ongoing concentrated distribution, DI readings greater than -60%, advises increased risk aversion for the bulls.  Increased risk aversion could mean tighter stops or faster than normal profit taking on the profits - other people's money.

JJC Matrix


A weekly close above the July 2015 gap from 30.40 to 30.79 supports the up impulse, while a close below the November gap from 25.89 to26.15 could reverse it. A reversal favor testing of lower support.

On Balance Volume, a crude measure of trend energy, has been displaying higher highs relative to price since July. Positive divergences are fractal. A positive divergence on the weekly chart in REV(E), a better measure of trend energy, reveals the power behind the accumulation in copper (chart 3). Details of long-term accumulation and distribution that includes REV(E) analysis is normally reserved for subscribers.

Chart3


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.